Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS BILIS (FLORITA) intensifies as it nears Northern Taiwan... [Update #12]

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #12

Name: TROPICAL STORM BILIS [FLORITA/05W/0604]

Issued: 7:00 PM MANILA TIME (11:00 GMT) THU 13 JULY 2006
Next Update: 7:00 AM (23:00 GMT) FRI 14 JULY 2006
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #022
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TROPICAL STORM BILIS (FLORITA) BEARING DOWN
ON THE
NORTHEASTERN COAST OF TAIWAN WHILE GAINING MORE STRENGTH
...TAIWAN SUFFERING FROM HIGH WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: BILIS is expected to make landfall
over Northern Taiwan around midnight of Friday, July 14
(12-1 AM local time) - passing directly over Taipei around
3-4 AM. The storm is forecast to weaken slightly after
crossing the mountainous terrain of Northern Taiwan towards
Taiwan Strait. It shall then make its 2nd landfall along
Fujian Province, China tomorrow afternoon (Friday, July 14)
around 3-4 PM local time, near the City of Fuzhou.

+ EFFECTS: The core & inner bands of this storm are now
covering the whole of Taiwan, most especially the Islands
of Yaeyama. Stormy weather conditions (Heavy rains with
very strong winds) can be expected along areas affected
by the core and inner bands of BILIS. High waves & dange-
rous surf along the beachfront areas of the affected
areas will continue overnight until tomorrow. BILIS'
wide-outer bands continues to spread across Northern
Luzon, the northern sections of South China Sea and
Philippine Sea including Balintang & Bashi Channel,
eastern coast of China, Okinawa & Ryukyu Islands. The
outer bands are expected to bring passing rains with
moderate to sometimes strong winds (most especially
along the southern periphery) reaching 60 km/hr tonight
until tomorrow. Large and dangerous sea surf & waves
can be expected over the exposed beaches of the above-
mentioned areas. Kindly take precautionary measures
against these hazardous surf & waves.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: The active & strong South-
west Monsoon continue to be strengthened by BILIS affec-
ting Northern and Central Philippines, becoming more in-
tense along the Western sections of Luzon & Visayas (in-
cluding Metro Manila, Subic Bay and the cities of Dagu-
pan, Baguio & Tagaytay). This monsoon system will bring
cloudy skies with occasionally moderate to heavy rains
& moderate to strong SW'ly winds (approx 30 to 60 km/hr).
These rains may produce life-threatening flash floods
and mudslides along river banks, low-lying areas and
mountain slopes of the affected areas.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast
outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, and tropical
cyclone watch changes every 06 to 12 hours!

_______________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 5:00 PM MANILA TIME (09:00 GMT) 13 JULY
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 24.2º N...LONGITUDE 122.7º E
DISTANCE 1: 420 KM (225 NM) NNE OF BASCO, BATANES, PH
DISTANCE 2: 140 KM (75 NM) SE OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN
DISTANCE 3: 115 KM (62 NM) ENE OF HUALIEN, TAIWAN
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 100 KM/HR (55 KTS)
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 130 KM/HR (70 KTS)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 984 MILLIBARS (hPa)
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 17 FEET (5.1 METERS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: N/A
RECENT MOVEMENT: NW @ 17 KM/HR (09 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: NORTHERN TAIWAN
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 1,390 KM (750 NM)/VERY LARGE
VIEW T2K TRACKING MAP: 5 PM THU JULY 13
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 48 HRS LEAD

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: N/A

09-21 HR. FORECAST:
> 2 AM (18 GMT) 14 JULY: 24.9N 121.7E / 100-130 KPH
> 2 PM (06 GMT) 14 JULY: 26.0N 120.0E / 85-100 KPH

REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 13 JULY POSITION: 24.0N 123.1E.
^TS BILIS HAS MADE A MARKED POLEWARD TURN OVER THE LAST
12 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO THE TEMPORARY WEAKENING OF THE
MIDLEVEL STEERING RIDGE BY TWO TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS. THE STEERING RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK IN AND
SHIFT THE TRACK BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST CAUSING
LANDFALL IN CENTRAL CHINA NEAR 36 HRS....(more info)

>> BILIS {pronounced: bee~lees}, meaning: Speed;
fleetness. Name contributed by: Philippines.

_________________________________________________________________________________

PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 4 PM (08 GMT) 13 JULY: 23.8N 122.8E / NW @ 15 KPH / 110 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website
at: http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
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LATEST T2K TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics, Japan) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas
      being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals,
      visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Sea Wave Height near
      its center.
__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srhnoaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

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