Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Powerful Typhoon EWINIAR (ESTER) reaches 205 kph... [Update #10]

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #10

Name: TYPHOON EWINIAR [ESTER/04W/0603]

Issued: 7:00 PM MANILA TIME (11:00 GMT) TUE 04 JULY 2006
Next Update: 7:00 AM (23:00 GMT) WED 05 JULY 2006
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #019
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POWERFUL TYPHOON EWINIAR (ESTER) NOW CARRYING SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 205 KM/HR AS IT TRACKS NORTH-NORTHWEST ACROSS
THE WARM WATERS OF THE NORTHERN PHILIPPINE SEA.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: EWINIAR is expected to intensify a
little bit & continue tracking NW'ly across the Phili-
ppine Sea for the next 24 to 48 hours. The 3 to 5-Day
Advance Forecast (July 6-9) still shows the system
turning Northerly, then recurving NE'ly - passing just
to the east of Okinawa, Japan around 4 AM Saturday,
July 8 (approximately 127 km east of Kadena Air Base,
Okinawa).

+ EFFECTS: EWINIAR is not yet affecting any land or is-
lands at this moment. However, the outer (feeder) bands
is forecast to reach Okinawa-Ryukyu Area sometime Thurs-
day or Friday (July 6 or 7). The storm's outer bands are
characterize with passing moderate to heavy rains with
moderate to sometimes strong winds that could produce
flying debris, life-threatening flash floods and mud-
slides along river banks, low-lying areas and mountain
slopes over the affected island.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: None yet... However, this
powerful typhoon is expected to enhance & strengthen the
Southwest (SW) Monsoon across the Philippines especially
the western sections beginning late Wednesday or Thursday
until the weekend (July 05-09). This monsoon system will
bring cloudy skies with winds of approx. 30 to 60 km/hr,
accompanied with light, moderate to heavy rains. These
rains may produce life-threatening flash floods and mud-
slides along river banks, low-lying areas and mountain
slopes of the affected areas.

+ TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH: The Tropical Disturbance (LPA/
97W/1006 mb) over Central Micronesia remains disorganized
while trying to consolidate. The disturbance was located
approximately 1,475 km SE of Hagatna, Guam (3.0N 153.1E).
It may likely become a significant Tropical Cyclone within
the next 2 to 3 days. Stay tuned for more updates on this
developing system.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast
outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, and tropical
cyclone watch changes every 06 to 12 hours!

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TIME/DATE: 5:00 PM MANILA TIME (09:00 GMT) 04 JULY
LOCATION OF EYE: LATITUDE 16.5º N...LONGITUDE 132.3º E {SatFix}
DISTANCE 1: 1,045 KM (565 NM) EAST OF NORTHERN LUZON, PH
DISTANCE 2: 1,195 KM (645 NM) SSE OF OKINAWA, JAPAN

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 205 KM/HR (110 KTS)
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 250 KM/HR (135 KTS)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 933 MILLIBARS (hPa)
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 36 FEET (10.9 METERS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY THREE (3)
RECENT MOVEMENT: NNW @ 15 KM/HR (08 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: OKINAWA-RYUKYU AREA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 815 KM (440 NM)/LARGE
VIEW T2K TRACKING MAP: 5 PM TUE JULY 04
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: N/A

09-21 HR. FORECAST:
> 2 AM (18 GMT) 05 JULY: 17.3N 131.4E / 220-270 KPH
> 2 PM (06 GMT) 05 JULY: 18.3N 130.2E / 220-270 KPH

REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 04 JULY POSITION: 16.1N 132.5E.
^TY EWINIAR IS TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTH-
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE (STHPR) ANCHORED TO THE EAST OF OKINAWA. THIS
MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH 48 HRS, AFTER
WHICH THE INFLUENCE OF A MIDLATITUDE LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM CENTRAL CHINA IS EXPECTED TO
ERODE THE STHPR SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW TY EWINIAR TO
PROGRESS ON A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK AND NEARING THE
RIDGE AXIS BY 72 HRS...(more info)

>> EWINIAR {pronounced: ee~win~yar}, meaning: Chuuk
traditional storm God. Name contributed by: Micronesia.
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PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 2 PM (06 GMT) 04 JULY: 16.1N 132.5E / NW @ 15 KPH / 150 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website
at: http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics, Japan) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
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LATEST T2K TRACKING CHART:

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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas
      being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals,
      visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Sea Wave Height near
      its center.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srhnoaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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