Bushman's Typhoon Blog: KAEMI (GLENDA) now a Typhoon...now entering PAR [Update #06]

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #06

Name: TYPHOON KAEMI [GLENDA/06W/0605]

Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) FRI 21 JULY 2006
Next Update: 7:00 PM (11:00 GMT) FRI 21 JULY 2006
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #012
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...KAEMI (GLENDA) BECOMES THE THIRD TYPHOON OF THE 2006
SEASON...STILL GAINING STRENGTH AS IT IS ABOUT TO ENTER
THE PHILIPPINE AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY (PAR)...THREATENS
EXTREME NORTHERN LUZON & TAIWAN.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: No change in the Projected Forecast
Track of KAEMI. The typhoon is expected to continue mo-
ving WNW to NW'ly for the next 3 days and intensify. The
4 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows the system approa-
ching Taiwan as a 185-km/hr (Category 3) Typhoon and ma-
king landfall over the Eastern Coast very near the City
of Hualien by early Tuesday morning (July 25). The
typhoon shall be over Taiwan Strait or off the Coast of
Fujian Province, China by early Wednesday morning
(July 26).

+ EFFECTS: KAEMI's westernmost outer bands approaching
the coastal areas of Samar & Bicol Provinces. Moderate
to sometimes heavy rainfall with gale-force winds of up
to 40 km/hr may be expected along the typhoon's outer
bands. The coastal and beach-front areas of the affected
provinces may expect moderate to rough seas with dange-
rous surf & waves reaching 2 to 3 feet today as the
typhoon moves across the Philippine Sea.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: Enhanced Southwest (SW) Mon-
soon has already begun affecting Mindanao particularly
the western provinces. Cloudy weather conditions with
light to moderate to sometimes heavy precipitation can
be expected today. Southwesterly winds may range from
20 to 35 km/hr.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast
outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, and tropical
cyclone watch changes every 06 to 12 hours!

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TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM MANILA TIME (21:00 GMT) 21 JULY
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 15.3º N...LONGITUDE 135.1º E
DISTANCE 1: 1,295 KM (700 NM) ENE OF NAGA CITY, PH
DISTANCE 2: 1,395 KM (755 NM) ESE OF CASIGURAN, AURORA, PH
DISTANCE 3: 10 KM (06 NM) EAST OF P.A.R.
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 140 KM/HR (75 KTS)
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 165 KM/HR (90 KTS)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 967 MILLIBARS (hPa)
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 26 FEET (7.9 METERS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: N/A
RECENT MOVEMENT: WNW @ 22 KM/HR (12 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: TAIWAN
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 890 KM (480 NM)/LARGE/VERY LARGE
VIEW T2K TRACKING MAP: 5 AM FRI JULY 21
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: N/A

09-21 HR. FORECAST:
> 2 PM (06 GMT) 21 JULY: 16.5N 133.8E / 160-195 KPH
> 2 AM (18 GMT) 22 JULY: 17.9N 131.9E / 165-205 KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 21 JULY POSITION: 14.9N 135.6E.
^TY KAEMI IS TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE (STHPR)
ANCHORED EAST OF OKINAWA. AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE
LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CHINA IS WEAKENING THIS
STHPR ON ITS WESTERN PERIPHERY. HOWEVER, THE RIDGE IS
NOT EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR RECURVATURE.
THUS THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A STEADY NORTHWESTWARD
PROGRESSION ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE STHPR
THROUGH 72 HOURS...(more info)

>> KAEMI {pronounced: gae~mi}, meaning: An ant. A very
   small insect that lives in highly organized groups.
   It often appears in Korean fairy tales as a symbol
   of diligence. Name contributed by: Republic of Korea.

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LATEST T2K TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics, Japan) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas
      being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals,
      visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Sea Wave Height near
      its center.
__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srhnoaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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