Saturday, October 21, 2017

Super Typhoon LAN (PAOLO) Final Update

 

Super Typhoon LAN (PAOLO) Final Update

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SUPER TYPHOON LAN (PAOLO) UPDATE NO. 11 [FINAL]

Issued at: 6:30 PM PhT (10:30 GMT) Saturday 21 October 2017
Current Status and Outlook

Super Typhoon LAN (PAOLO) a little weaker as it accelerates north-northeastward…will leave the northeastern border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on or before midnight tonight.

24-hr Outlook: STY LAN (PAOLO) is forecast to continue its weakening trend and will move rapidly north-northeastward at an increased speed of 37 kph, in the general direction of  Southern Japan.

*With this development, this will be the last update on STY LAN (PAOLO).

Where is LAN (PAOLO)?As of 5:00 PM PhT today, October 21…0900 GMT.  The 50-km large eye was located over the northeastern part of the North Philippine Sea (near 23.1N 132.3E), about 1,102 km east-northeast of Basco, Batanes or 1,111 km east of Taipei, Taiwan.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 225 kph near the center…Gustiness: 275 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs)It was moving North-Northeast @ 26 kph, towards the Sea south of Japan.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s):: None.
What Philippine areas will be most affected?Moderate to Heavy Rains (50 to 100 mm expected):
>> None.

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+:: None.
1-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens to just below Super Typhoon classification while outside PAR. Moving very quickly towards Southern Japan…about 1,269 km east of Shanghai, China [2PM Oct 22: 29.7N 134.6E @ 200kph].  Confidence LevelHIGH.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 320 mm [Light to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 926 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 1,145 km (Medium)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 130 km from center.

Additional DistancesTime/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Sat October 21, 2017
Location of Center/Eye: Near 23.1º N Lat 132.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 1172 km ENE of Santa Ana, Cagayan
Distance 2: 1198 km ENE of Calayan Island, Cagayan
Distance 3: 1230 km E of Kaohsiung City, Taiwan
Distance 4: 1259 km ENE of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan
Distance 5: 1515 km NE of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

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Posted by: "Typhoon2000.com (Michael V. Padua)" <T2Kstormupdates@gmail.com>
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Super Typhoon LAN (PAOLO) Update No. 10

 

Super Typhoon LAN (PAOLO) Update No. 10

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SUPER TYPHOON LAN (PAOLO) UPDATE NO. 10

Issued at: 6:15 AM PhT (22:15 GMT) Saturday 21 October 2017
Next update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Saturday, 21 October 2017
Current Status and Outlook

LAN (PAOLO) rapidly intensifies…becomes the second Super Typhoon (STY) of the 2017 Season…expected to leave the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) tonight.

24-hr Outlook: STY LAN (PAOLO) is forecast to continue intensifying and move rapidly north-northeastward at a speed of 29 kph, across the northernmost part of the North Philippine Sea towards the Sea south of Japan.

*Based on its current projected path, this typhoon is no longer a threat to the country.

Meanwhile, the Southwesterly Windflow which is enhanced by TY LAN (PAOLO) has started to weaken, but will continue to bring light to moderate to at times heavy rain showers and thunderstorms across Occidental Mindoro, Romblon, Western Visayas, Zamboanga Peninsula, and the Kalayaan Island Group.

Where is LAN (PAOLO)?As of 5:00 AM PhT today, October 21…2100 GMT.  The 50-km large eye was located over the central part of the North Philippine Sea (near 21.0N 130.9E), about 927 km east of Basco, Batanes or 957 km east-northeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 225 kph near the center…Gustiness: 190 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs)It was moving Northeast @ 14 kph, towards the North Philippine Sea.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s):: None.
What Philippine areas will be most affected?Moderate to Heavy Rains (50 to 100 mm expected):
>> None.

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+:: None.
1-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Already outside of PAR. Starts to weaken after reaching Category 5 status as it accelerates rapidly NNE towards Central Japan…about 1,075 km east of Taipei, Taiwan [2AM Oct 22: 26.3N 132.2E @ 235kph].  Confidence Level: HIGH.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 350 mm [Light to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 926 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 1,640 km (Large)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 100 km from center.

Additional DistancesTime/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Sat October 21, 2017
Location of Center/Eye: Near 21.0º N Lat 130.9º E Lon
Distance 1: 1002 km ENE of Calayan Island, Cagayan
Distance 2: 1028 km E of Taitung, Taiwan
Distance 3: 1033 km ENE of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan
Distance 4: 1060 km ENE of Cauayan City, Isabela
Distance 5: 1263 km NE of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

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Posted by: "Typhoon2000.com (Michael V. Padua)" <T2Kstormupdates@gmail.com>
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Friday, October 20, 2017

Typhoon LAN (PAOLO) Update No. 09

 

Typhoon LAN (PAOLO) Update No. 09

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TYPHOON LAN (PAOLO) UPDATE NO. 09

Issued at: 6:15 PM PhT (10:15 GMT) Friday 20 October 2017
Next update: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Saturday, 21 October 2017
Current Status and Outlook

Typhoon LAN (PAOLO) slowly intensfying as it continues to move on a general northerly track across the North Philippine Sea…expected to exit the northern border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by tomorrow evening (Oct 21).

24-hr Outlook: TY LAN (PAOLO) is forecast to intensify and move north-northeastward at a speed of 19 kph, across the northernmost part of the North Philippine Sea and over the sea south of Japan.

*Based on its current projected path, this typhoon will not directly affect any part of the country.

Meanwhile, the combined effects of the Monsoon Trough and Ex-Tropical Depression 26W, along side with the Southwesterly Windflow as enhanced by TY LAN (PAOLO) – will continue to bring light to moderate to at times extreme rain showers and thunderstorms over MiMaRoPa, Western Visayas, Zamboanga Peninsula, and Western Bicol.

Where is LAN (PAOLO)?As of 5:00 PM PhT today, October 20…0900 GMT.  The center was located over the central part of the North Philippine Sea (near 19.9N 130.1E), about 847 km east of Basco, Batanes or 905 km east-northeast of Aparri, Cagayan.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 155 kph near the center…Gustiness: 190 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs)It was moving North @ 13 kph, towards the North Philippine Sea.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s):: None.
What Philippine areas will be most affected?Moderate to Heavy Rains (50 to 100 mm expected):
>> None.

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+:: None.
1-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Intensifies into a Category 4 Typhoon as it moves NNE across the northern part of the North Philippine Sea…about 986 km east of Taipei, Taiwan [2PM Oct 21: 23.3N 131.1E @ 200kph].  Confidence Level: HIGH.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 350 mm [Light to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 956 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 1,350 km (Large)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 180 km from center.

Additional DistancesTime/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Fri October 20, 2017
Location of Center/Eye: Near 19.9º N Lat 130.1º E Lon
Distance 1: 867 km E of Itbayat, Batanes
Distance 2: 907 km ENE of Ilagan City, Isabela
Distance 3: 937 km ENE of Cauayan City, Isabela
Distance 4: 969 km ENE of Santiago City, Isabela
Distance 5: 1128 km ENE of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

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Posted by: "Typhoon2000.com (Michael V. Padua)" <T2Kstormupdates@gmail.com>
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Typhoon LAN (PAOLO) Update No. 08

 

Typhoon LAN (PAOLO) Update No. 08

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TYPHOON LAN (PAOLO) UPDATE NO. 08

Issued at: 6:30 AM PhT (22:30 GMT) Friday 20 October 2017
Next update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Friday, 20 October 2017
Current Status and Outlook

Typhoon LAN (PAOLO) moving northward across the southern part of the North Philippine Sea, with no change in strength…likely to moved out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) this weekend.   

24-hr Outlook: TY LAN (PAOLO) is expected to intensify slightly as it moves northward towards the northern part of the North Philippine Sea at a forward speed of 16 kph.

*Based on its current projected path, this typhoon will not directly affect any part of the country.

Meanwhile, the combined effects of the Monsoon Trough and Ex-Tropical Depression 26W, along side with the Southwesterly Windflow as enhanced by TY LAN (PAOLO) – will continue to bring moderate to at times extreme rain showers and thunderstorms over MiMaRoPa, Visayas, Zamboanga Peninsula, Bicol Region and Quezon.

Where is LAN (PAOLO)?As of 5:00 AM PhT today, October 20…2100 GMT.  The center was located over the southern part of the North Philippine Sea (near 18.4N 130.0E), about 820 km east-northeast of Palanan, Isabela or 882 km east of Aparri, Cagayan.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 130 kph near the center…Gustiness: 155 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs)It was moving North @ 17 kph, towards the North Philippine Sea.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s):: None.
What Philippine areas will be most affected?Moderate to Heavy Rains (50 to 100 mm expected):
>> None.

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+:: None.
2-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Intensifies into a Category 2 Typhoon as it moves North to NNE across the central and northern parts of the North Philippine Sea…about 847 km east of Basco, Batanes [2AM Oct 21: 21.4N 130.1E @ 165kph].  Confidence Level: HIGH.

SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Exits the northern boundary of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) as it weakens slightly after reaching Category 3 strength, heads for Japan…about 1,004 km east of Taipei, Taiwan [2AM Oct 22: 26.2N 131.5E @ 170kph].  Confidence LevelHIGH.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 400 mm [Light to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 967 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 1,450 km (Large)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 360 km from center.

Additional DistancesTime/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Fri October 20, 2017
Location of Center/Eye: Near 18.4º N Lat 130.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 858 km E of Ilagan City, Isabela
Distance 2: 878 km NE of Sorsogon City, Sorsogon
Distance 3: 886 km ENE of Cauayan City, Isabela
Distance 4: 895 km ESE of Itbayat, Batanes
Distance 5: 1044 km ENE of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

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Posted by: "Typhoon2000.com (Michael V. Padua)" <T2Kstormupdates@gmail.com>
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Thursday, October 19, 2017

Typhoon LAN (PAOLO) Update No. 07

 

Typhoon LAN (PAOLO) Update No. 07


TYPHOON LAN (PAOLO) UPDATE NO. 07

Issued at: 7:40 PM PhT (11:40 GMT) Thursday 19 October 2017
Next update: 8:00 AM PhT (00:00 GMT) Friday, 20 October 2017
Current Status and Outlook

Typhoon LAN (PAOLO) has slightly intensified as it moved north-northwestward over the northern part of the Central Philippine Sea during the past 6 hours. Its southwestern rainbands continues to bring "on-and-off" rains and thunderstorms over the Bicol Region and Samar Provinces.  

TY LAN (PAOLO) is expected to intensify as it moves northward in the next 24 hours over the southern part of the North Philippine Sea at a forward speed of 15 kph.

Meanwhile, the combined effects of Typhoon LAN (PAOLO), Monsoon Trough, Southwesterly Windflow, and Tropical Depression 26W will continue to bring moderate to at times extreme rain showers and thunderstorms over Palawan, Western Visayas, and Eastern sections of Bicol Region.

*Based on its current projected path, this typhoon will not directly affect any part of the country.

Where is LAN (PAOLO)?As of 5:00 PM PhT today, October 19…0900 GMT.  The center was located over the northern part of the Central Philippine Sea (near 16.8N 130.0E), about 759 km northeast of Borongan  City, Eastern Samar or 784 km northeast of Catbalogan City, Samar.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 130 kph near the center…Gustiness: 155 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs)It was moving North-Northwest @ 12 kph, towards the North Philippine Sea.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s):: None.
What Philippine areas will be most affected?Moderate to Heavy Rains (50 to 100 mm expected):
>> None.

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+:: None.
3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Becomes a Category 3 Typhoon as it moves towards the southern part of the North Philippine Sea…about 792 km east of Santa Ana, Cagayan [2PM Oct 20: 19.6N 129.6E @ 170kph].  Confidence Level: HIGH.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Continues to gain strength as it moves towards the northern part of the North Philippine Sea…about 882 km east-northeast of Basco, Batanes [2PM Oct 21: 23.0N 130.1E @ 205kph].  Confidence LevelMEDIUM.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Slightly weakens after it exited the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR), already threatening the southern part of Japan..about 1069 km east-southeast of Shanghai , China [2PM Oct 22: 28.0N 131.9E @ 190kph].  Confidence Level: LOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 550 mm [Light to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 967 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 920 km (Medium)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 195 km from center.

Additional DistancesTime/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Thu October 19, 2017
Location of Center/Eye: Near 16.8º N Lat 130.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 785 km NE of Calbayog City, Samar
Distance 2: 790 km NE of Guiuan, Eastern Samar
Distance 3: 807 km ENE of Ligao City, Albay
Distance 4: 811 km ENE of Naga City, Camarines Sur
Distance 5: 988 km ENE of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: John Christian B. Lequiron for WeatherPhilippines

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Posted by: "Typhoon2000.com (Michael V. Padua)" <T2Kstormupdates@gmail.com>
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